There are plenty more fish in the sea...or not...

I would firstly like to examine the fishing industry within West Africa. West Africa can be seen on the map below and includes countries such as Ghana and Nigeria. The stretch of coastline is between the Strait of Gibraltar and the southern most point of the People's Republic of Congo.

The impact that climate induced hydrological changes has on the African economy is incredibly significant. From agriculture to energy to transport. However, the relatively unexplored fishing industry should be further scrutinised as it is not only a vital segment in Africa’s economic orange but is also an indispensable food source.

Let’s start with the problem – climate change causes rising sea temperatures, fish stocks migrate as a result to colder waters as they like things just so. Selfish I know but that’s life. Abundance falls in areas that have been previously economically geared towards said fish abundance. You can start to see the negative chain reactions. Fishing revenues are set to fall by as much as 10.4% by 2050 globally. (Liam et al. 2016) Interesting when compared to as much as 26% predicted in Africa. This demonstrates just how reliant the African economy is on fishing when related to the rest of the globe. Moreover, the insane multiplier effect of “1.04 additional onshore jobs are created in Mauritania and 3.15 in Guinea” means that the 12+ million people that are engaged in the fisheries sector in Africa are so valuable to the economy. (Liam et al. 2016) The two actors namely climate change and over fishing are teaming up together to ensure the scarcity of fish is set to rise by 1% annually. This will have a negative multiplier effect on food stocks and wealth creation due to the weak adaptive capacity of the fishing industry.

Figure 1 - source: Briefreport_Pabietal.2015.pdf

Figure 1 is an illustration of how vulnerable fish populations can be to surface temperature changes. On the whole, most species (except anchovies) peak in terms of size when the temperatures are low. This table ultimately illustrates the clear like between temperature and abundance. 

Economically speaking, the African fishing industry can be viewed as a base economy whereby lots of different industries are supported by it. Industries such as boat building, fish processing and international transport. By 2050 it is estimated that up to 50% of fishery related jobs will be lost if we carry on at the current temperature predictions. (Lam et al. 2012; 111)

Food security wise, the FAO estimate fish accounting for 19% of protein intake for Africa with peaks and in West African counties such as 63% of dietary protein in Gambia is from fish. (Lam et al. 2012; 113) Therefore, variation in fish landings due to climate change could have a direct effect on the levels of food security. As you can see below, the predicted landing numbers of most West African countries are seen to be significantly falling - a predicted drop of around 8% under the constant 2000 scenario. Under the high range GHG emission worst case scenario, this could be up to 26%!  (Lam et al. 2012; 110)

Table from https://www.tandfonline.com

So what’s the solution I hear you ask? You have to be able to quantify something to solve it – find the root of the problem. The way this particular article has added the net multiplier effect to some results is eye opening and worrying as it is clear the climatically induced fishing industry decline  has a much greater impact on the economy and food security of Africa than initial figures suggest. The general trend of climate warming can’t easily be quantified in order to be solved. However, with the more minor problem of unsustainable fishing, there are solutions. Legislation can be changed, government action taken based on biophysical and socioeconomic analysis. But we are talking about climate change and its effect on water supply in Africa and in turn the knock on effects on the economy. (Allison et al. 2009) I think the main problem which can be observed is that the responsibility is always differed onto others due to the lack of accountability for anthropogenic climate change. There is no direct source. In this case, Africa are paying the price for more developed countries actions creating this climate warming indirectly and directly in terms of over fishing - the more developed countries should be developing the adaptation strategies not lesser developed African countries. (Lam et al. 2012; 114)Ultimately, there are predicted impacts both due to climate change and other external sources but to fully set themselves up to boost their adaptive capacity, Africa must be able to quantify their fish stocks, know its value and strengthen fishery management in terms of monitoring and surveillance. Otherwise these African countries cannot sign treaties and provide ecologically sustainable subsidies for the industry. 

Why the picture? 

The colour and diversity of the patterns in this picture represents the huge opportunities for the African economy to diversify their economy and therefore spread the risk over other industries. This picture is also hand painted which mirrors the hands on artisinal way that fishermen operate.